Overview of the Charts

The provided charts visualize daily counts of Citizens Broadband Radio Service Devices ("CBSDs", radios or access points operating in the CBRS 3.5 GHz shared spectrum band) from mid-2022 to mid-2025. CBRS operates under a three-tier model: incumbents (e.g., military) have top priority, followed by Priority Access Licenses (PALs, up to 70 MHz of protected spectrum per county) and General Authorized Access (GAA, 80 MHz of opportunistic, license-free spectrum). The charts focus on CBSDs with grants in PAL-only (protected, licensed access), GAA-only (opportunistic, unlicensed), or mixed (both PAL and GAA) modes.

Key Trends in PAL Adoption

The charts illustrate a clear trajectory of increasing PAL adoption amid explosive overall CBRS growth, but with GAA remaining the dominant mode due to its low barriers to entry. Here's a breakdown:

1. Dominance of GAA-Only Deployments:

   • In 2022, GAA-only (blue) comprises ~70-80% of total CBSDs, starting from a low base of ~50,000-100,000 devices. This reflects early CBRS commercialization post-FCC Auction 105 (2020), where enterprises and operators favored GAA's free access for pilots in logistics, manufacturing, and rural broadband.
   • By mid-2025, GAA-only still holds ~60-70% (blue bars near the bottom of the stack), but the absolute count balloons to ~250,000-300,000 daily. This aligns with NTIA statistics: 71.4% of active CBSDs were GAA-only as of July 2024, up from 85% in 2021, as deployments hit 400,000+ total. GAA's appeal lies in zero upfront costs and flexibility, enabling quick scaling in non-critical applications like indoor Wi-Fi augmentation or temporary event coverage.

2. Rising Mixed GAA & PAL Usage:

   • The light green mixed layer starts small (~10-15% in 2022) but grows to ~20-25% by 2025, representing ~80,000-100,000 CBSDs. This is the fastest-growing segment, with a ~17% quarterly increase in PAL-involved sites from 2021-2023.
   • Percentages show mixed rising from ~10% to ~25%, indicating operators layering PAL protection over GAA for hybrid reliability. For instance, 82.2% of PAL-granted CBSDs also use GAA by mid-2024, up from 51.5% in early 2022—often via carrier aggregation for downlink boosts in high-traffic areas like stadiums or campuses. This trend signals maturing adoption: users start with GAA for proof-of-concept, then add PAL for performance guarantees.

3. Limited but Accelerating PAL-Only Adoption:

   • Dark green (PAL-only) remains a thin sliver: ~5-10% throughout (~10,000-30,000 CBSDs), peaking at ~15% in 2025. Absolute numbers triple from 2022 to 2025, but percentages stabilize low, matching NTIA data where PAL-only CBSDs were just ~18,800 in early 2023 vs. 230,500 GAA-only.
   • Growth is steady but not explosive, with PAL grants rising 418% from 2021-2024 to 114,682 CBSDs total. This reflects PAL's niche: reserved for high-stakes, interference-sensitive use cases like utility grids or military-adjacent deployments, where the 10-year license (up to 40 MHz per county) justifies costs.

Overall, PAL adoption is "crossing the chasm" from early trials to scaled hybrids, with total PAL-involved CBSDs (mixed + PAL-only) climbing from ~15-20% in 2022 to ~35-40% by 2025. This mirrors broader private 5G trends, where CBRS enables localized networks without full MNO dependency.

Implications for Commercial Viability of PAL Adoption

The charts underscore PAL's strong but targeted commercial viability: it's not a mass-market replacement for GAA but a premium enabler for revenue-generating, mission-critical applications. Key reflections:

1. Cost-Benefit Tradeoff Favors Hybrids:

   • PAL's viability shines in mixed mode, where users leverage GAA's 80 MHz for bulk capacity and PAL's protected 10-40 MHz channels for QoS-sensitive slices (e.g., low-latency automation). Auction 105 raised $4.6B for 22,631 licenses, but secondary leasing keeps costs accessible (~$0.10-0.50/MHz-pop in rural areas), making it viable for utilities (e.g., Alabama Power) or MNOs (e.g., Verizon's secondary cells, correlating 0.54 with PAL density). Charts show this paying off: mixed deployments grow 2-3x faster than pure GAA, signaling ROI in sectors like healthcare (reliable telemetry) or logistics (AR/VR tracking).

2. Ecosystem and Use Case Momentum:

   • Viability is bolstered by a maturing vendor ecosystem (e.g., Ericsson's NetCloud, Nokia's CBRS kits), projecting $850M+ in OnGo revenues by 2024 and 24% CAGR through 2034. The charts' 2025 uptick aligns with 2025 pilots like Comcast's University of Virginia network, where PAL anchors GAA for offload savings. Rural focus (67.5% of CBSDs by 2024) enhances viability for WISPs, doubling deployments for underserved broadband.

3. Challenges and Risks:

   • Low PAL-only share (~15% max) highlights viability limits: high upfront costs and SAS complexity deter small enterprises, with incumbents occasionally vacating PAL channels for GAA fallback. Congestion risks in urban GAA (seen in trials) push viability toward PAL, but only if secondary markets mature—currently underdeveloped. Still, shared model's success (no major interference incidents) proves viability, with 82.7% of U.S. counties using CBRS by 2024.

In summary, the charts depict PAL adoption as a viable "force multiplier" for CBRS, driving ~35% of 2025 deployments despite GAA's scale. This reflects commercial success in hybrid models for private 5G, with projections for broader viability as costs drop and use cases (e.g., Industry 4.0) proliferate. For operators, PAL isn't essential everywhere but critical for monetizable reliability, positioning CBRS as a $1.7B+ market by 2025.